With deference to the Blogmocracy discussion on the same subject
First of all, I don’t think there is such a thing as a “template” in modern American politics, or in politics in general. Demographics change far too quickly for “templates” to develop. That said, there are “similarities” between 1980 and 2012; a Democrat president “in over his head” both domestically as well as in terms of foreign policy, an economy in tatters, and a Republican candidate who’s largely unknown outside the liberal picture that has been painted of him. In the summer of 1980 Reagan was still behind in the polls and it looked as though Jimmy Carter would probably win. All that said, the “first black president” thing is hugely potent and is effectively immunizing Obama from direct responsibility for any of these things. Guilt makes people do stupid things and the election of Obama is testament to that fact. Thank God though, stupid’s not permanent. History has shown, however, that it is very damaging to the Republic and repair requires unity, resolve, and is not at all easy.
I think Obama will wave the “Black Talisman” furiously but, in the end, he will fail in his bid for reelection. We’ll soon be entering a period, assuming that Romney wins and I believe he will even by a narrow margin, a period of “reconstruction”. Considering the American people’s recent history of stupidity, I’m not as concerned about the leadership of a potential Romney administration as I am about the American people’s capacity to do what needs to be done.