Sunday, July 16, 2006


This is an interesting take on Israel's plans for the immediate future from OPFOR, someone who knows what he's talking about:

One of the lessons America, and the world, drew from the lightning campaigns of Gulf Wars I & II was the importance of battlesplace preparation. That is, the conditioning of the battlefield's environment prior to initiating full scale military operations.

What we are witnessing in southern Lebanon is concurrent with actions designed to prep a battlefield for the insertion of ground forces. So far, Israel has relied on its dominance in sea and air forces to isolate Hezbollah, rather than focusing their brunt of their superior forces on actual enemy positions. By blockading the coast,
neutralizing Beruit's airport, and damaging roads and bridges into and out of Lebanon, the IDF has cut off Hezbollah's supply routes by land, sea, and air, and blocked all lines of escape.

These isolation actions are eerily similiar to Coalition movements prior to operation Hail Mary during the first Gulf War, where allied aircraft severed supply lines to foward deployed Iraqi Army units. The end result is a battlespace that traps the now ill-equipped enemy force, the ideal environment for Israel to crush Hezbollah forces.

I think that in the coming days, we will see a sizable Israeli ground incursion into southern Lebanon, a campaign designed to exploit the favorable conditions that Israel has created for itself. I have the feeling that once that invasion comes, Hezbollah's ability to launch rocket attacks into Israel proper will be severly reduced, if not eliminated.

Endstate: IDF holds the territory until it is satisfied that the Lebanese Army is A) free from Syrian control and B) capable of holding the southern border on their own.

As for me, I feel pretty certain that what we have seen in the last few days is just the beginning. Moreover, both Syrian and Iranian fingerprints are all over Hezbollah and and the day of reckoning may well be drawing near.

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